Whats Luck Got to Do with It The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gamblers Illusion – Joseph Mazur
Whats Luck Got to Do with It The History, Mathematics, and Psychology of the Gamblers Illusion
By: Joseph Mazur
Publisher: Princeton University Press (June 6, 2010)
Pages: 296
Format: Ebook (PDF)
Description
Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are “hot” in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What’s Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good.
Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers’ trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling–including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers–and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability.
As entertaining as it is informative, What’s Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing.
About the author
Joseph Mazur is professor emeritus of mathematics at Marlboro College. His books include The Motion Paradox: The 2,500-Year-Old Puzzle behind All the Mysteries of Time and Space and Euclid in the Rainforest: Discovering Universal Truth in Logic and Math.
Contents
Part I: The History
Chapter 1. Pits, Pebbles, and Bones – Rolling to Discover Fate
Chapter 2. The Professionals – Luck Becomes Measurable
Chapter 3. From Coffeehouses to Casinos – Gaming Becomes Big Business
Chapter 4. There’s No Stopping It Now – From Bans to Bookies
Chapter 5. Betting with Trillions – The 2008 World Economic Calamity
Part II : The Mathematics
Chapter 6. Who’s Got a Royal Flush? – One Deal as Likely as Another
Chapter 7. The Behavior of a Coin – Making Predictions with Probability
Chapter 8. Someone Has to Win – Betting against Expectation
Chapter 9. A Truly Astonishing Result – The Weak Law of Large Numbers
Chapter 10. The Skill/Luck Spectrum – Even Great Talent Needs Some Good Fortune
Part III : The Analysis
Chapter 11. Let It Ride – The House Money Effect
Chapter 12. Knowing When to Quit – Psychomanaging Risk
Chapter 13. The Theories – What Makes a Gambler?
Chapter 14. Hot Hands – Expecting Long Runs of the Same Outcome
Chapter 15. Luck – The Dicey Illusion
Acknowledgments
Appendix A. Descriptions of the Games Used in This Book
Appendix B. Glossary of Gambling Terms Used in This Book
Appendix C. The Weak Law of Large Numbers
Appendix D. Glossary of Mathematical Definitions
Appendix E. Callouts
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