Value Investing Rules The Marwood Value Model – Joe Marwood
Update January 2020
Please be informed that this strategy (like other value strategies) has under-performed significantly in recent years. While it could rebound there is a reasonable probability that the system is no longer effective. As a result we are no longer trading or following this strategy but may revisit it in 6 months time. The course will be left open since it contains some useful info for strategy development and using P123.
The Marwood Value Model is a quantitative value investing strategy that I developed to find cheap stocks. It is based on 10 simple rules and can be deployed on it’s own or as part of a diversified portfolio of strategies.
Whether you’re an experienced stock market investor or you’re looking to buy stocks for the very first time, this course will show you a hassle-free way to find deep value investments.
The Marwood Value Model is based around 10 key rules for buying and just one rule for selling.
Of course, the rules are not simply plucked out of thin air. They are grounded in the principles of successful value investing and take their cues from successful value investors such as Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham, Peter Lynch and others.
The nature of this strategy makes it both highly flexible and easy to use. Entries and exits are made every two weeks, which means this is another stock market strategy that requires very little maintenance.
It is the perfect strategy to combine with another system, such as a trend following system, a growth investing system, or even a simple buy-and-hold approach.
Course Curriculum
Before We Begin
StartImportant disclaimer
StartHow to take this course and get in touch.
PreviewWhat’s this course all about?
PreviewRecent Performance
StartIntroduction (4:33)
Goals, Tools & Some Theory
StartGoals of the course. (2:18)
StartSome theory & why you need investing rules. (2:10)
StartTools we will be using. (3:29)
PreviewEvidence of value investing and principles. (2:04)
StartOur benchmark. How to measure performance. (4:32)
StartThe S&P 500 is a trading system. David Harding from Winton Capital speaks.
PreviewBenjamin Graham’s investing rules.
Getting Started
StartA word about data mining and optimisation. (4:01)
StartTransaction costs, survivorship-bias and other settings. (3:01)
The 10 Rules
StartRule zero: liquidity. (3:01)
StartRule one: market cap. (1:05)
StartRule two: minimum price filter. (0:32)
StartRule three: PE ratio. (3:53)
StartRule four: forward PE ratio. (1:46)
StartRule five: price-to-sales. (1:57)
StartRule six: price to book (2:44)
StartRule seven: price-to-free-cash-flow (1:34)
StartRule eight: current ratio. (1:24)
StartRule nine: 5-year EPS growth. (1:32)
StartRule ten: momentum. (1:54)
When To Sell
StartSell rule one. (4:10)
Risk & Ranking & Finer Details
StartRisk: how many shares to buy. (3:22)
StartExtra important details. (2:40)
StartRanking criteria: how to choose between stocks. (1:30)
StartCapital requirements.
Back-Testing The Rules
StartSetting up the simulator with the 10 rules. (5:32)
StartBack-testing the rules on historical data: in-sample and out-of-sample (2:19)
StartFull sample test: 2000 – 2015. (3:33)
PreviewPerformance Reports & Statistics.
Stress-Testing
StartStress-testing the strategy (6:43)
Some Finer Points
StartStrategy advantages & disadvantages. (2:33)
StartIntroducing ETFs into the mix. (3:16)
StartMarwood Value: loose version (2:17)
Extra Rules (Qualitative)
StartRule 11: understand the business. (1:04)
StartRule 12: insider transactions. (1:28)
StartRule 13: consistency of earnings. (1:06)
StartRule 14: keep a macro view. (2:06)
StartRule 15: don’t put all your eggs in one basket. (0:53)
StartRule 16: profit warnings & chart patterns. (2:12)
StartRule 17: don’t gamble. (2:08)
StartRule 18: analyse your performance. (1:09)
StartRule 19: look for compelling story lines. (1:38)
StartRule 20: ignore the noise. (1:32)
Going live
StartHow to run the strategy live (3:02)
StartHow to trade the strategy live (in plain language)
StartImportant Observations: Watch Out For These
StartTax implications.
The End
StartConclusion (0:36)
Additional Material
StartMarwood Value Model Full eBook
StartClarification on the sell rule.
StartNew Bonus Strategy: Income Grower
StartShould you wait for the next market crash? Buy-and-hold facts.
Resources
StartSupport
StartFurther reading.
StartMusic credits.
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